Why Money Printing in the U.S. Is About to Change the Investment Game (Again)

Years ago, during a college economics class, I remember my professor comparing the U.S. Treasury to a slick car salesman—always smiling, always selling, and sometimes stretching the truth. Recently, watching the latest U.S. policy maneuvers, I felt that memory resurface. Money printing isn’t new, but the speed, scale, and political acrobatics behind it today are on another level. If you think you’ve seen it all after COVID-19, buckle up; the next few years might just rewrite the investment playbook.

1. When the Old Rules Break: Why Yesterday’s Past Won’t Predict Tomorrow’s Markets

For decades, investors have leaned on history as their compass. It’s a natural instinct—look back, spot the patterns, and make your move. But lately, that old playbook is showing its age. The rules that once guided financial projections in the US are being rewritten, and nowhere is this more obvious than in the world of money printing.

As one analyst recently put it,

A lot of people make a lot of mistakes because they expect the past to be the definitive guide for the future, especially in expecting some sort of central bank money printing and there will be money printing. It’s just it will be a bit different this time.

The message is clear: relying too heavily on what happened before 2020 could leave investors blindsided.

Why? The scale and pace of central bank strategy have shifted dramatically. The COVID-19 era (2020-2022) saw unprecedented levels of money printing, but research shows that what’s coming next could make that period look modest by comparison. Financial projections in the US suggest that the amount of money printing expected between now and 2028 is set to dwarf anything we’ve seen before.

It’s not just the numbers that are changing—it’s the entire approach. Each cycle of money printing seems to get bigger, but also different. The context is new: inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and a global economy still finding its footing. Investors who anchor their strategies in old data risk missing the signals that matter most today.

Everyone’s watching the US central bank right now, and for good reason. The Federal Reserve’s decisions ripple across the globe, influencing everything from currency values to stock markets. But it’s important to remember that the US isn’t acting in isolation. Other major economies are playing the same game, each with their own twists on central bank strategy.

What makes this moment especially daunting is the sheer scale of what’s projected. Between now and 2028, the anticipated money printing could reshape markets in ways that defy easy comparison to the past. Studies indicate that investor beliefs anchored in pre-pandemic trends may be not just outdated, but actively misleading.

In short, the old rules are breaking down. The next chapter in US money printing will be bigger, bolder, and—crucially—different. Investors, policymakers, and everyday savers alike would be wise to take note: the future won’t look like the past, no matter how tempting it is to believe otherwise.

2. Bonds: America’s Hardest Sell and the Bessant Pitch

It’s no secret that the US bond market is facing one of its toughest chapters yet. Even the most skilled salesmen are struggling to make bond investments look attractive, and the numbers tell a story that’s hard to ignore. Since 2017, the supply of US Treasury debt has surged by about 80%. That’s a staggering increase—a sign of just how much the government needs to finance itself. But here’s the catch: while the supply has ballooned, the appeal of bonds has shriveled in comparison to other major asset classes.

Let’s break it down. If you had put your money into the NASDAQ instead of bonds back in 2017, you’d be up by roughly 80% more today. The same goes for gold—another 80% edge over bonds. And then there’s Bitcoin, which has outperformed bonds by a jaw-dropping 99% over the same period. The data is clear: bonds are lagging behind, and not by a small margin. As one market observer put it,

The outperformance of the NASDAQ is about 80% from 2017 until the present. So yes, you might have made money owning bonds on your coupon, but if you put your money in the stock market, you would have made 80% more.

So why are bonds such a hard sell right now? Research shows that traditional narratives around bond investments are being challenged by new data and new leaders. Enter Scott Bessant, the US Secretary now tasked with pitching bonds to a skeptical market. Bessant’s reputation precedes him—he’s a former hedge fund manager with experience working alongside George Soros, and he’s known for his sharp economic instincts. But even with his credentials, Bessant’s job is starting to look a lot like that of a character in Glengarry Glen Ross: always be closing, always trying to convince buyers to take a chance on a product that’s losing its luster.

Every time Bessant appears on TV, I can’t help but picture him as a used car salesman, trying to move inventory that’s just not moving. His job? Sell US bonds. And with the government’s growing need for financing, that job is only getting harder. The reality is, while you might make some money holding bonds—collecting those coupons—the opportunity cost is glaring. Stocks, gold, and especially Bitcoin have simply left bonds in the dust.

For investors, the message is becoming harder to ignore: the US bond market is no longer the safe, reliable bet it once was. The numbers, and the new faces leading the charge, are forcing everyone to rethink what makes a smart investment in this changing landscape.

3. The Politics of Deficits: Why Cutting Spending Is Harder Than Selling Bonds

When it comes to deficit spending in the United States, the numbers are eye-popping, but the politics are even more revealing. Every election cycle, we hear promises from both sides—whether it was the Trump administration or the current Biden team—about tackling the so-called “spending problem.” Yet, as the fiscal year 2025 unfolds, the U.S. deficit is already tracking above the previous year, which itself set a record. The reality is, for all the tough talk about fiscal discipline, real action is scarce.

It’s easy to see why. Cutting government spending is a political minefield. As one observer put it,

Every dollar that the government spends is going into somebody else’s pocket. And if you’re going to come out here and say we’re going to cut trillions of dollars from the deficit, that’s obviously going to impact a lot of people and businesses in an adverse fashion.

That’s not just rhetoric. Research shows that spending reforms are limited by political incentives and realities. Politicians may talk about eliminating “waste, fraud, and abuse,” but these buzzwords rarely translate into meaningful cuts. The moment deficit reduction efforts threaten popular programs or jobs, the conversation shifts. Policymakers quickly drop the tough talk when it starts to hit political nerves. It’s not hard to see why: voters don’t reward pain at the ballot box.

In fact, the playbook is well-worn. If spending can’t be cut, the fallback is to rely on growth—or, more often, to lean on credit and money creation. Studies indicate that huge deficits are increasingly financed not by tax hikes or spending cuts, but by issuing new debt and, when necessary, printing more money. This approach keeps the wheels turning, but it also raises the stakes for fiscal policy US and the broader economy.

Looking at the data, the U.S. posted a record deficit in fiscal year 2024, and 2025 is already shaping up to surpass it. Despite the headlines, neither major party has managed to deliver significant spending reforms. Instead, the government’s balance sheet depends more and more on new credit, even as inflation remains a politically unpopular—yet economically crucial—side effect.

In the end, the politics of government spending US are clear: fiscal diets are easier said than done. The incentives just aren’t there for real cuts, leaving policymakers with few options beyond borrowing and printing. And as history shows, that’s a hard cycle to break.

4. Credit, Growth, and the Inflation Trade-Off: Lessons from China and the Bitcoin Hedge

When it comes to economic growth credit, the U.S. is at a crossroads. The conversation in Washington has shifted: deficit reduction is out, and growth is in. Scott Besson’s recent media tour made it clear—he’s all in on boosting growth, even as the deficit remains stubbornly high. But how does a country with a massive debt pile and rising interest costs hit ambitious GDP targets? The answer, as I’ve seen firsthand, lies in credit expansion.

My perspective on this changed dramatically after spending much of my adult life in China. In China, growth is not some mysterious force—it’s engineered. The government decides how much credit to inject, and GDP follows. It’s a simple equation: more credit, more growth. As one observer put it,

If you’re willing to put more credit into the system, then you’ll get any growth target that you want. So if Bess says they want six or seven percent nominal GDP growth, great. How much credit are you going to create?

This approach is now seeping into U.S. policy thinking. Research shows that growth targets rest on expanding credit and tolerating a certain level of inflation. The U.S. may not say it outright, but the math is clear: to outpace the cost of debt, nominal GDP must rise, and that means borrowing and printing more money.

There are a couple of ways this could play out. One is what I call “QE for the poor”—instead of banks using their balance sheets for financial engineering, they lend directly to the real economy. More loans to small businesses, more jobs, more spending. Another path is blowing up another asset bubble, perhaps in Bitcoin or crypto, with policymakers quietly cheering on the capital gains and the economic activity that follows.

But both strategies come with a catch: inflation. It’s not just a side effect—it’s a necessary tool. Inflation helps manage the government’s debt burden, even if it’s politically unpopular. Studies indicate that tolerating inflation is the price of ambitious growth targets. And here’s where the story comes full circle: as inflation rises, the search for an inflation hedge intensifies. Bitcoin performance has outpaced traditional assets precisely because it thrives in this environment of expanding credit and rising prices.

In the end, the U.S. push for credit-driven growth and the political acceptance of inflation are reshaping the investment landscape. For those watching closely, the lessons from China—and the rise of Bitcoin—offer a new lens on where we might be headed next.

5. The New Policy Playbook: Capital Controls, Banking Loopholes, and a Trillion-Dollar Pivot

In the world of U.S. economic policy, the playbook is changing fast. For years, tariffs were the go-to tool for rebalancing trade, but lately, the focus has shifted. Tariffs, after all, tend to stoke goods inflation and empty shelves—never a winning strategy with voters. Instead, capital controls are quietly moving into the spotlight, offering a subtler way to manage the flow of money and shore up government finances without sparking consumer backlash.

One of the most significant policy shifts involves taxing foreign buyers of government bonds in the US. Back in 1984, the U.S. exempted foreign investors from certain taxes on Treasury bond income, a move designed to attract overseas capital at a time when yields were sky-high. But now, as fiscal gaps widen, policymakers are rethinking that exemption. As one analyst put it,

There is talk now about rescinding that exemption to do a few things. First, it could raise over a trillion dollars over a decade by basically taxing foreigners on the income that they receive.

Research shows that such a move could deliver a much-needed revenue boost, but it also risks driving foreign investors away from short-term Treasuries, potentially forcing more money printing to fill the gap.

This isn’t the only lever being pulled. The supplemental leverage ratio (SLR) for banks is back in the headlines. During the pandemic, regulators allowed banks to buy Treasuries with “infinite leverage”—a temporary fix that’s now being reconsidered as a permanent feature. If the SLR exemption returns, banks could step in as major buyers of government bonds, profiting from the spread between low deposit rates and higher bond yields. It’s a move that could stabilize government financing but also inject new volatility into asset markets, as research indicates these incentives can fuel credit growth and asset price swings.

Meanwhile, the mortgage market could see its own form of intervention. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored entities, may get the green light to pump more money into mortgages, supporting housing but also raising questions about long-term risk.

All told, these policy shifts—capital controls, new taxes, and banking loopholes—are reshaping the landscape for investors and savers alike. The cascade effect is clear: as the government patches fiscal holes with new tools, the investment game grows more complex and volatile. For anyone watching government bonds in the US or tracking policy shifts, it’s a moment to pay close attention. The next trillion-dollar pivot may already be underway.

TL;DR: Expect unprecedented U.S. money printing through 2028, with major implications for bonds, inflation, and alternative assets. Don’t get left behind—understand the new rules before they change again.