Why Money Printing Is About to Change Everything (Again): Confessions of a Market Skeptic

Let me start with a confession: I’ve never trusted anyone who calls bonds a “safe bet.” Maybe it’s the contrarian in me, but watching government debt levels rise faster than most of us can run a 5K, I get itchy. Just last week, over my burnt morning toast, I found myself scribbling notes about the U.S. bond market on the back of a cereal box—hardly the behavior of a well-adjusted adult. But something’s brewing in the world of money printing, and you’ll want to pay attention. The patterns are changing fast—and the old playbooks just don’t fit anymore. Let’s try to make sense of it together, with the occasional detour into movie analogies and bad breakfast decisions.

Bessant, the (Unintentional) Used Car Salesman: Why Selling Bonds Is a Tough Gig

Let’s talk about money printing, US Treasury bonds, and why the bond market feels like a tough sell these days. If you’ve been watching the headlines, you know the numbers are staggering. Since 2017, US Treasury debt has soared by 80%. That’s not a typo. And the US deficit for 2025? It’s already on track to outpace 2024, which was itself a record-breaking year. The scale of government spending is hard to ignore, and the implications for investors are even harder to overlook.

Here’s where things get interesting. Research shows the next three years could see government stimulus and money printing that will dwarf what we witnessed during the COVID-19 era. As one market observer put it,

The amount of money printing that’s going to happen between now and 2028 is going to dwarf what we saw during the 2020 to 2022 COVID period.

That’s a bold claim, but the data backs it up. The supply of US Treasury bonds has exploded, yet the returns just haven’t kept pace with other assets. Let’s break it down:

• From 2017 to 2024, the NASDAQ outperformed US Treasury bonds by roughly 80%.
• Gold? Same story—about 80% better returns than bonds over the same period.
• And Bitcoin performance? It’s not even close. Since 2017, Bitcoin outperformed bonds by an eye-popping 99%.

So why are investors losing faith in government bonds? It’s simple. When you stack up US Treasury bonds against stocks, gold, or Bitcoin, the traditional “safe” investment starts to look like yesterday’s news. The relentless pace of money printing and the ballooning US deficit—especially as we look toward 2025—only add to the skepticism.

In today’s market, selling bonds feels a bit like trying to move last year’s model off the lot. Investors are looking for performance, and right now, US Treasury bonds just aren’t delivering. With the government set to unleash even more stimulus, the gap between bonds and alternative assets could grow even wider.

The Discipline of Deficits: Why Nobody Really Wants to Cut Spending (And Why That Matters)

There’s a new face at the helm of the US Treasury, and his job is nothing short of Herculean. Scott Bessant, the freshly minted Treasury Secretary, has been thrust into the spotlight at a time when selling US Treasury bonds feels more like hustling used cars than managing the world’s reserve currency. The comparison isn’t just for laughs—think of that iconic scene from Glengarry Glen Ross, where the mantra is “Always Be Closing.” That’s Bessant now, except every time you see him on TV, imagine he’s a used car salesman and he’s selling you something. What is he selling you? Bonds.

Bessant’s background is impressive. He’s not just another bureaucrat—he’s a former hedge fund manager who once worked alongside George Soros, helping to break currency pegs and navigate global financial storms. That kind of experience gives him credibility, but even the sharpest minds are struggling to convince investors to buy in. The reality is stark: US Treasury bonds are a tough sell these days. Compared to stocks and other investment options, government bonds look increasingly unattractive. The risk-return profile just isn’t what it used to be, and investors know it.

The numbers tell the story. The US government must sell over $2 trillion in bonds each year. That’s a staggering sum, and traditional buyers are starting to balk. Research shows that the old sales pitches aren’t working anymore. Investors are reading the charts, seeing the underperformance, and asking tough questions. Why lock up money in government bonds when almost every alternative looks better?

This is where the discipline of deficits comes into play. Nobody in Washington really wants to cut spending, but the consequences are catching up. As the bond market crisis looms, Bessant and his team are forced to get creative—pulling out PR stunts, offering incentives, and reworking the narrative just to keep the debt machine running. The classic bond sales pitch has failed. Now, it’s about survival, not tradition.

Are We Just Inventing Bubbles Now? Growth, Credit, and the Coming Inflation

It’s a familiar story in Washington: new administration, new promises to tackle the US deficit. I remember the Trump administration coming in, talking tough about how the US government had a spending problem. The message was clear—government spending was out of control, and something had to change. But if you look at the numbers, especially from the Peterson Institute up to March this year, the reality is hard to ignore. The fiscal year in the US starts in October, and for fiscal year 2025, the US deficit is already tracking above 2024’s record-breaking numbers. So much for promises to cut.

Despite all the talk about reining in government spending, the deficit keeps ballooning. The headlines might focus on “ending fraud and abuse,” but, in practice, those efforts rarely lead to meaningful cuts. Research shows that every attempt to trim spending runs into the same political wall. Every dollar cut is a dollar taken from someone’s pocket—voters, businesses, or entire industries. And that’s just not good politics.

As one observer put it,

“Every dollar that the government spends is going into somebody else’s pocket. And if you’re going to come out here and say we’re going to cut trillions of dollars from the deficit, that’s obviously going to impact a lot of people and businesses in an adverse fashion.”

The backlash is predictable. Politicians who champion austerity politics quickly find themselves on the defensive. The so-called “attack dogs” of deficit reduction often disappear from the spotlight, their missions quietly abandoned as the political costs become clear.

What’s left is a kind of policy theater. Fanciful promises of fiscal discipline are replaced by a growing reliance on future growth and, more importantly, credit expansion. The US economic strategy now leans heavily on boosting GDP through borrowing, not belt-tightening. Studies indicate that, in today’s climate, meaningful deficit reduction is politically impossible. Instead, the solution is more credit, more growth targets, and, inevitably, the risk of inflating new bubbles. The cycle continues, with the US debt crisis looming ever larger in the background.

Wild Card Moves: Capital Controls, Bank Leverage, and the $1 Million Bitcoin

Let’s talk about the wild card moves that could reshape the financial landscape—again. The U.S. is staring down a persistent deficit, running at about 7% of GDP, and policymakers are under pressure to hit ambitious growth targets. Recently, Scott Bess went on a media blitz, emphasizing that he’s “all in on growth.” But what does that really mean when you’re running a massive deficit? In simple terms, it means you need to get nominal GDP growth above your cost of interest. That’s a tall order unless you’re prepared to inject massive amounts of credit into the economy.

Having spent years in China, I’ve seen firsthand how growth targets can be managed by simply dialing up the credit spigot. In China, GDP is often treated as an output directly tied to how much credit authorities are willing to create. The U.S. appears to be taking a page from this playbook. As Bess himself put it:

If Bess says they want six or 7% nominal GDP growth, great. How much credit are you going to create?

Here’s where things get interesting. To manage these growth targets, policymakers are likely to flood the system with cheap money. Research shows that inflation is no longer just a risk—it’s a deliberate tool. Authorities now see inflation as a necessary evil, a way to erode the real value of America’s giant debt pile. It’s not an accident; it’s a calculated move.

How does this play out? Historically, when faced with similar challenges, authorities have blown new financial bubbles. Maybe the next one is in Bitcoin or crypto—what some are already calling the “crypto bubble 2025.” There’s even talk of a more accommodative stance, encouraging the crypto crowd to get wealthy, pay capital gains taxes, and boost economic activity. Bank lending, fintech, and even stablecoins could all be enlisted in this coming credit surge. Some call it “QE for poor people,” where banks lend directly to the real economy, creating jobs and growth—but also, inevitably, more inflation.

With projected nominal GDP targets of 6-7%, the question isn’t if more credit will be created, but how much—and where it will flow. The link between credit, growth, and US inflation is now explicit. Bubbles, it seems, are no longer a bug, but a feature of fiscal policy.

Conclusion: The Unwritten Playbook—Why Adaptability Will Be the Real Winner in the Next Crash

As the global financial system teeters on the edge of another potential crisis, it’s clear that the US government is prepared to try almost anything to keep the debt machine running. The old playbook is out the window. In its place, we’re seeing a wave of financial innovation—and disruption—that could reshape markets in ways few expect.

One of the most striking proposals on the table is the removal of the tax exemption for foreigners holding US Treasuries. This isn’t just a technical tweak; it’s a trillion-dollar idea with massive market risks. By taxing foreign holders, the US could raise over a trillion dollars in revenue over a decade. But there’s a catch: research shows that such a move could spook overseas investors, forcing them to dump Treasuries and potentially destabilizing the bond market.

Capital controls are also gaining traction as a more voter-friendly alternative to tariffs. Unlike tariffs, which drive up prices and empty store shelves, capital controls can be spun as making “foreigners pay” while quietly raising revenue. It’s a political win—at least on the surface.

Meanwhile, the conversation around yield curve control is heating up. Instead of outright intervention, policymakers are considering “soft” yield curve control: penalizing short-term bond ownership while rewarding those who hold the long end. This subtle manipulation could channel demand where it’s needed most, but it comes with its own set of risks.

Perhaps the most dramatic shift could come from a bank SLR exemption. As one expert put it,

Bank buying bonanza. So the supplemental leverage ratio—if you don’t remember anything from this presentation, do please remember this.

Exempting banks from leverage ratios would allow them to buy Treasuries with almost infinite leverage, propping up demand just when it’s needed most. If Basel III rules are relaxed, banks could fill the gap left by retreating foreign investors—but at the cost of increased systemic risk.

With over $2 trillion in bonds to sell each year, and 30-year Treasury yields once soaring near 12%, the stakes couldn’t be higher. If these interventions fall short, the only option left may be the printing press—fueling Bitcoin performance as capital flees to perceived safety.

Conclusion: The Unwritten Playbook—Why Adaptability Will Be the Real Winner in the Next Crash

As I wrap up this analysis, one thing is clear: the coming wave of money printing will upend nearly every market norm we’ve come to trust. The scale of monetary expansion I expect between now and 2028 is set to dwarf anything we saw during the COVID era. In this new environment, market adaptability isn’t just a buzzword—it’s the single most important trait for investors hoping to survive, let alone thrive.

Research shows that agility and skepticism—not blind faith in past wisdom—will be the key advantage for those navigating the next era. The playbook is unwritten, and the rules are changing fast. We’re likely to see wild policy experiments, old tricks dressed up with new names, and a system that shifts quickly and sometimes recklessly. Each new government policy will have surprising knock-on effects, often catching even seasoned analysts off guard. If you spot the movie references before your financial advisor does, consider it a bonus.

Bitcoin performance remains a focal point in this evolving landscape. While Bitcoin still looks like the best hedge against inflation and reckless monetary policy, nothing is set in stone. The future of investing will demand creative thinking and a willingness to unlearn what used to work. I’ve found myself jotting down market notes on cereal boxes—an odd habit, perhaps, but one that reminds me to stay nimble and ready for the next pivot.

The only certainty is uncertainty. As the US government and others roll out new waves of money printing, bonds will likely continue to disappoint, and traditional safe havens may not offer the protection they once did. The next cycle will test every assumption.

Buckle up: massive US money printing is ahead, bonds will keep disappointing, and only truly adaptable investors can hope to ride the coming economic storm.

In the end, the future of investing will belong to those who can adapt, question, and reinvent their strategies on the fly. Stay alert, stay skeptical, and keep your cereal boxes handy—you might need them for your next big idea.

TL;DR: Buckle up: massive US money printing is ahead, bonds will keep disappointing, and only truly adaptable investors can hope to ride the coming economic storm. My bet? Bitcoin outperforms, and politicians invent new tricks to dodge hard choices.